American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP) Practice Exam

Which method uses state population forecasts to calculate county or local population projections?

1. The Migration and Natural Increase Method

2. The Cohort Survival Method

3. The Symptomatic Method

4. The State Forecasting Technique

The correct answer is: The State Forecasting Technique

The State Forecasting Technique is a method that employs state population forecasts to derive projections for counties or local areas. It is effective because it leverages comprehensive data from state-level analyses, which typically involve detailed demographic studies encompassing birth rates, death rates, and migration patterns. By utilizing these state forecasts, planners can create a more accurate representation of expected population changes within smaller jurisdictions, aligning local growth patterns with broader state trends. This method is particularly valuable for local planners, as it provides a scientifically grounded estimate based on larger datasets, reducing the potential for error that may arise when analyzing local trends in isolation. By referencing state forecasts, planners can ensure that their projections factor in the influences of regional development and economic conditions that might not be evident when examining local data alone. Other methods mentioned, like the Migration and Natural Increase Method or the Cohort Survival Method, involve different approaches focusing on specific demographic factors or the survival rates of different cohorts within the population, rather than relying primarily on overarching state forecasts. The Symptomatic Method, while a recognized concept, does not typically align with the structured approach of using state data for local forecasting. Therefore, the State Forecasting Technique stands out as the most relevant method for utilizing state-level data to make informed projections at the county