American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP) Practice Exam

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Which method projects the current or future population using the ratio between city and county populations at a known time point?

Net Migration
Cohort Survival Method
Step-Down Ratio Method
Shift-Share Analysis

The correct answer is: Step-Down Ratio Method

The Step-Down Ratio Method is a technique used in population projection that relies on ratios to estimate the relationship between populations of different geographic areas, such as a city and its surrounding county. This method is particularly useful when planners have a clear understanding of the demographic relationships at a certain point in time. By applying the ratios derived from this known data point, planners can project future populations based on anticipated trends, such as growth or decline. In essence, the method takes a snapshot of the existing population distribution and applies that structure to forecast how populations may change over time. This can be valuable for decision-making related to resource allocation, infrastructure planning, and service delivery within urban and regional contexts. The other options serve different purposes. Net Migration focuses on the movement of people in and out of a defined area, but it does not specifically use population ratios for projections. The Cohort Survival Method relies on birth and death rates to evaluate future population sizes, and Shift-Share Analysis examines how different factors contribute to economic or demographic changes but does not project populations in the same proportional manner as the Step-Down Ratio Method.